Don’t Face Valentine’s Day Without Bayes Theorem

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Valentines Day question: What does it mean when a girl smiles at you every time she sees you? Let Bayes Theorem help:


In the intermediate case, what you need to do is find the ratio of odds of smiling at people she likes to smiles in general, multiply by the percentage of people she likes, and there is your answer. The more she smiles in general, the lower the chance she likes you. The more she smiles at people she likes, the better the chance. And of course the more people she likes, the better your chances are.

Of course, how to actually determine these values is a mystery our best scientists have never solved.


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